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Accueil > Interactions > Interdisciplinaires > Climate, economy/insurance and statistic

Climate, economy/insurance and statistic    fr

- Research team : statistics
- Contact : Armelle Guillou

Within the actual climate change context and the natural hazard insurance system reform in France, the question of how to define a natural hazard event plays a fundamental role. Reimbursements have to be taken by the state (via the “Caisse Centrale de la Réassurance”) whenever the extreme event has a return period greater than 10 years. Today, such a decision is made subjectively. Defining an accurate criterion to classify an event into the natural hazard category is only possible if a network of measurements is sufficiently dense to allow an adequate probabilistic modeling of extreme events.

The goal of this project is to develop a statistical model to optimize the spatial design of a network of stations according to the distribution of extreme events. Two statistical research fields will be needed. Extreme Value Theory should provide the probabilistic structure to study extreme events. Spatial network design should bring the mathematical structure to optimize the network architecture. This project encompasses three scientific communities and this inter-disciplinary effort should allow to develop novel network design tools in a probabilistic framework dedicated to extreme event analysis.

Dernière mise à jour le 14-12-2011